Statistics Profile

Daniel Timmins

1997

Badger Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1451	1088 - 1813	1451	1508
Épée	Direct elimination	1714	1109 - 2318	1476	1714
Saber	Pool	2467	2036 - 2897	2338	3399
Saber	Direct elimination	2664	2141 - 3186	2463	2793

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.