Statistics Profile

Newt Kelbley

2002
Bay Regional Fencing Alliance Michigan State University Fencing Club
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Current strength

Weapon Type Strength Estimate Range* Min Max
Épée Pool 2168 1822 - 2513 1949 2593
Épée Direct elimination 2266 1722 - 2809 2163 2774
Foil Pool 1995 1757 - 2232 1475 2016
Foil Direct elimination 2508 2136 - 2879 1931 2628
Saber Pool 1563 874 - 2251 1563 2464
Saber Direct elimination 2544 1171 - 3916 2544 2648

* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

How it works

  • Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
  • The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
  • New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
  • Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
  • The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
  • Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
  • Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
  • Per-bout changes are available in bout history.