Statistics Profile

Jordan Tsay

2010

Silicon Valley Fencing Center

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1617	1109 - 2124	1617	1955
Épée	Direct elimination	1750	824 - 2675	1750	2205
Foil	Pool	1988	1815 - 2160	1724	2479
Foil	Direct elimination	2022	1851 - 2192	2003	2634

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.