Statistics Profile

Marc Ghotanian

2004

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2246	1814 - 2677	1979	2246
Épée	Direct elimination	2234	1526 - 2941	2163	2325
Foil	Pool	2244	1381 - 3106	2244	2244
Foil	Direct elimination	1747	674 - 2819	1747	1747
Saber	Pool	1185	373 - 1996	1185	1185
Saber	Direct elimination	2079	640 - 3517	2079	2079

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.