Statistics Profile

Joshua Schaefer

2003

OnTarget Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2267	1915 - 2618	2267	2680
Épée	Direct elimination	2301	1352 - 3249	2301	2466
Foil	Pool	2647	2476 - 2817	1724	2683
Foil	Direct elimination	2654	2422 - 2885	1769	2692

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.