Statistics Profile

Nicholas Zhang

2006

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	3311	3119 - 3502	2685	3311
Épée	Direct elimination	3835	3624 - 4045	3049	3968
Foil	Pool	3510	3222 - 3797	3403	4012
Foil	Direct elimination	3570	3303 - 3836	3108	3925

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.