Statistics Profile

Nathaniel Otto

2007

Fencing Academy Of Philadelphia - North Philadelphia Fencers Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1956	1789 - 2122	1225	2139
Épée	Direct elimination	2106	1929 - 2282	1561	2272
Foil	Pool	1936	1570 - 2301	1936	2217
Foil	Direct elimination	1970	1028 - 2911	1970	2093

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.