Statistics Profile

Alexandra Nikolic

2006

University of South Florida Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1357	638 - 2075	1357	1357
Foil	Pool	2431	2250 - 2611	1562	2662
Foil	Direct elimination	2775	2596 - 2953	2257	2824

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.