Statistics Profile

Michael Stelzer

1968

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1173	317 - 2028	1173	1173
Épée	Direct elimination	1848	615 - 3080	1848	1848
Foil	Pool	560	0 - 1284	560	560
Foil	Direct elimination	1621	435 - 2806	1621	1621

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.