Statistics Profile

James Murphy

2003

Texas State University Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Foil	Pool	2009	1437 - 2580	1330	2009
Foil	Direct elimination	2183	1370 - 2995	1766	2183
Saber	Pool	2632	1526 - 3737	2632	2632
Saber	Direct elimination	2091	726 - 3455	2091	2091

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.