Statistics Profile

John Morreale

2003

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Foil	Pool	1258	635 - 1880	1258	1501
Foil	Direct elimination	1595	533 - 2656	1595	1770
Saber	Pool	2918	2752 - 3083	2621	3049
Saber	Direct elimination	3258	3064 - 3451	2168	3272

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.