Statistics Profile

Jason Mack

1985

Boise Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2328	2092 - 2563	1994	2492
Épée	Direct elimination	2561	2263 - 2858	2206	2913
Foil	Pool	1764	1313 - 2214	1522	1764
Foil	Direct elimination	1799	1085 - 2512	1723	1846

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.