Statistics Profile

Lucas Carr

2003

Napa Valley Fencing Academy

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Foil	Pool	2206	1121 - 3290	2206	2206
Saber	Pool	1930	1380 - 2479	1642	1930
Saber	Direct elimination	2325	1379 - 3270	2325	2328

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.