Statistics Profile

Andrew Nesterov

2005

Fencing Illini, University of Illinois

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2244	2074 - 2413	2230	3335
Épée	Direct elimination	2507	2316 - 2697	2143	2707

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.