Statistics Profile

Alexander Foreman

2002

US Air Force Academy NCAA University

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2382	2156 - 2607	2191	2453
Épée	Direct elimination	2436	1995 - 2876	1916	2541
Saber	Pool	1972	1446 - 2497	1972	1993
Saber	Direct elimination	1819	904 - 2733	1819	1939

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.