Statistics Profile

Jonathan Mathews (Jon)

1980

Plateau Fencing of Enumclaw Rain City Fencing Center

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1512	837 - 2186	1512	1512
Épée	Direct elimination	2082	1015 - 3148	2082	2082
Foil	Pool	2654	1763 - 3544	2654	2654
Foil	Direct elimination	1705	437 - 2972	1705	1705

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.