Statistics Profile

Joseph Nowak

2003

Fencing Illini, University of Illinois The Point Fencing Club & School

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2579	2153 - 3004	2553	2579
Épée	Direct elimination	2700	2164 - 3235	2367	2700
Foil	Pool	2383	2205 - 2560	1598	2586
Foil	Direct elimination	2699	2467 - 2930	2070	2912

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.