Statistics Profile

Aidan Shanks

2005

Blue Ridge Fencing Center

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2412	2047 - 2776	2106	2600
Épée	Direct elimination	2204	1728 - 2679	2081	2487
Foil	Pool	2028	1850 - 2205	1253	2101
Foil	Direct elimination	2322	2108 - 2535	1939	2921

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.