Statistics Profile

Matthew Chen

2004

Fencing Academy Of Philadelphia - University City Wallingford-Swarthmore Panthers

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1759	1459 - 2058	1460	1774
Épée	Direct elimination	2177	1621 - 2732	1930	2372
Foil	Pool	1892	1536 - 2247	1324	1892
Foil	Direct elimination	1515	624 - 2405	1515	2057

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.