Statistics Profile

Julia Aires

2009

East Bay Fencers Gym

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1834	1666 - 2001	1727	2260
Épée	Direct elimination	2185	2009 - 2360	1960	2425
Foil	Pool	1731	1485 - 1976	1551	1948
Foil	Direct elimination	1596	1072 - 2119	1596	1959

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.