Statistics Profile

Richard Li

2007

US Air Force Academy NCAA University

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1972	1510 - 2433	1972	2301
Épée	Direct elimination	3176	2578 - 3773	2559	3176
Foil	Pool	3314	3127 - 3500	2962	3371
Foil	Direct elimination	3707	3530 - 3883	2209	3750
Saber	Pool	1709	1105 - 2312	1709	1709
Saber	Direct elimination	1825	601 - 3048	1825	1825

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.