Statistics Profile

Nigel Copeland

2008

Lutheran West High School Fencing Fellowship

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2577	2084 - 3069	2577	2856
Épée	Direct elimination	2375	1887 - 2862	2371	2711
Foil	Pool	1920	1746 - 2093	1678	1987
Foil	Direct elimination	2204	2021 - 2386	1700	2347

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.