Statistics Profile

Caleb Tsai

2006

Apex Fencing Academy

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2014	1774 - 2253	2014	2437
Épée	Direct elimination	2228	1799 - 2656	2228	3270
Foil	Pool	1868	1694 - 2041	1596	3464
Foil	Direct elimination	2277	2059 - 2494	2277	3685

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.