Statistics Profile

Cary Worrall

2006

Blue Ridge Fencing Center Richmond Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1577	1298 - 1855	1203	1578
Épée	Direct elimination	2125	1666 - 2583	1256	2125

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.