Statistics Profile

Evan Chen

2006

Durkan Fencing Academy

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Foil	Pool	2207	1150 - 3263	2207	2207
Foil	Direct elimination	2079	640 - 3517	2079	2079
Saber	Pool	2564	2397 - 2730	1878	2954
Saber	Direct elimination	2680	2497 - 2862	1450	2708

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.