Statistics Profile

Lucas Olson

2007

Birmingham Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1574	1318 - 1829	1354	1574
Épée	Direct elimination	1327	756 - 1897	1147	1629
Foil	Pool	1723	1047 - 2398	1723	1723
Foil	Direct elimination	2024	702 - 3345	2024	2024

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.