Statistics Profile

Lucas Mao

2009

AIC Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1983	1615 - 2350	1951	2997
Épée	Direct elimination	1673	830 - 2515	1673	2804
Foil	Pool	2150	1980 - 2319	1291	2365
Foil	Direct elimination	2377	2210 - 2543	1877	2452

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.