Statistics Profile

Nathan Arnold

1997

University of South Florida Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1528	849 - 2206	1528	1704
Épée	Direct elimination	1668	482 - 2853	1668	1832
Saber	Pool	1411	751 - 2070	1003	1411
Saber	Direct elimination	1848	594 - 3101	1848	2079

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.