Statistics Profile

Alexander Heise

2003

University of Virginia Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2075	1373 - 2776	2075	2075
Épée	Direct elimination	2089	734 - 3443	2089	2089
Foil	Pool	1284	562 - 2005	1284	1572
Foil	Direct elimination	1908	643 - 3172	1908	2079

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.