Statistics Profile

Jason Cantrell

2002

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2459	2120 - 2797	2459	2822
Épée	Direct elimination	1425	395 - 2454	1425	2079
Foil	Pool	2452	1426 - 3477	2357	2452
Foil	Direct elimination	2155	719 - 3590	2155	2155

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.