Statistics Profile

Cole Shively

2005

Florida Fencing Academy

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1677	1485 - 1868	1073	1728
Épée	Direct elimination	1958	1614 - 2301	1354	2037
Saber	Pool	1017	618 - 1415	1017	1558
Saber	Direct elimination	1493	665 - 2320	1493	1628

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.