Statistics Profile

Ilya Aristov

2011

Spartak

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2013	1167 - 2858	2013	2013
Épée	Direct elimination	1826	477 - 3174	1826	1826
Saber	Pool	1923	1744 - 2101	1765	2318
Saber	Direct elimination	2357	2167 - 2546	1545	2468

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.