Statistics Profile

JP Gaarder

2008

Chesapeake Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1154	613 - 1694	1154	1488
Épée	Direct elimination	1566	478 - 2653	1566	2179
Foil	Pool	1559	1352 - 1765	1535	2145
Foil	Direct elimination	1822	1499 - 2144	1282	1978

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.