Statistics Profile

Erica Wiley

1986

West Berkeley Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2808	2610 - 3005	2640	3120
Épée	Direct elimination	3096	2799 - 3392	2393	3358
Foil	Pool	1453	882 - 2023	1027	1453
Foil	Direct elimination	2491	1837 - 3144	2260	2491

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.