Statistics Profile

Jason Gatza

2010
Orlando Fencing Academy
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Current strength

Weapon Type Strength Estimate Range* Min Max
Épée Pool 1414 1213 - 1614 1414 1703
Épée Direct elimination 2150 1788 - 2511 1954 2428
Foil Pool 1206 948 - 1463 1206 2763
Foil Direct elimination 1777 1276 - 2277 1629 2520
Saber Pool 1321 949 - 1692 1224 1934
Saber Direct elimination 1674 888 - 2459 1437 2504

* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

How it works

  • Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
  • The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
  • New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
  • Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
  • The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
  • Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
  • Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
  • Per-bout changes are available in bout history.