Statistics Profile

Sean Postma

2002

Wasatch Fencing

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Foil	Pool	1737	1140 - 2333	1737	1898
Foil	Direct elimination	2082	762 - 3401	2082	2082
Saber	Pool	1660	1130 - 2189	1232	1660
Saber	Direct elimination	1393	356 - 2429	1393	1618

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.