Statistics Profile

Jacob Postma

2006

Wasatch Fencing

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2165	1876 - 2453	2110	2435
Épée	Direct elimination	2453	1989 - 2916	2453	2857
Foil	Pool	2971	1993 - 3948	2971	2971
Foil	Direct elimination	2789	1873 - 3704	2789	2789
Saber	Pool	1557	973 - 2140	1557	1885
Saber	Direct elimination	2232	1405 - 3058	1931	2232

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.