Statistics Profile

Aaron Liu

2007

Denver Fencing Center

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1820	1615 - 2024	1510	2185
Épée	Direct elimination	2015	1678 - 2351	2015	2395
Foil	Pool	846	232 - 1459	846	1155
Foil	Direct elimination	2031	997 - 3064	1839	2031

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.