Statistics Profile

Kieran Mako

2004

Northwest Fencing Center

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1674	974 - 2373	1674	1923
Épée	Direct elimination	1778	465 - 3090	1778	1778
Foil	Pool	1939	1655 - 2222	1325	2236
Foil	Direct elimination	2189	1600 - 2777	1996	2482

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.