Statistics Profile

Caedmon Cortright

2008

Alliance Fencing Academy

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2284	2093 - 2474	1997	2477
Épée	Direct elimination	2431	2185 - 2676	2329	2819
Saber	Pool	1485	1087 - 1882	1485	1986
Saber	Direct elimination	1241	359 - 2122	1241	1832

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.