Statistics Profile

Michael Lin

Verified
2008
US Air Force Academy NCAA University

Current strength

Weapon Type Strength Estimate Range* Min Max
Épée Pool 1985 1287 - 2682 1985 1985
Épée Direct elimination 1849 614 - 3083 1849 1849
Foil Pool 2831 2655 - 3006 2189 3023
Foil Direct elimination 3119 2943 - 3294 2423 3158

* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

How it works

  • Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
  • The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
  • New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
  • Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
  • The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
  • Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
  • Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
  • Per-bout changes are available in bout history.