Statistics Profile

William Bowden Jr.

2003

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2261	1960 - 2561	1408	2301
Épée	Direct elimination	2774	2246 - 3301	2291	2784
Saber	Pool	2426	2085 - 2766	1679	2426
Saber	Direct elimination	2271	1619 - 2922	1584	2271

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.