Statistics Profile

Aliya Ferguson

2006

Wasatch Fencing

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1064	316 - 1811	1064	1579
Épée	Direct elimination	1873	670 - 3075	1873	1911
Foil	Pool	1454	1174 - 1733	1454	2073
Foil	Direct elimination	1735	1163 - 2306	1735	2672
Saber	Pool	1264	936 - 1591	1155	1712
Saber	Direct elimination	1922	1315 - 2528	1408	1922

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.