Statistics Profile

Ty Kaji

2003

Northern Colorado Fencers

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2544	2373 - 2714	1795	2670
Épée	Direct elimination	2697	2450 - 2943	1373	2720
Saber	Pool	1250	309 - 2190	1250	1250
Saber	Direct elimination	1997	710 - 3283	1997	1997

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.