Statistics Profile

Kevin Kappes

2004

Forge Fencing Teams DUR

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1299	930 - 1667	1147	1408
Épée	Direct elimination	1823	1121 - 2524	1792	2569
Foil	Pool	2153	1254 - 3051	2153	2153
Foil	Direct elimination	2179	778 - 3579	2179	2179

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.