Statistics Profile

Arnav Raja

2004

Cali Fencing University Of California San Diego NCAA

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Saber	Pool	2821	2645 - 2996	2480	3166
Saber	Direct elimination	3097	2916 - 3277	1959	3142

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.