Statistics Profile

Jesse Mehrbach

1982

Upper Valley Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1761	1403 - 2118	1370	1761
Épée	Direct elimination	1563	938 - 2187	1130	1838
Foil	Pool	1211	625 - 1796	1211	1731
Foil	Direct elimination	1156	172 - 2139	1156	1523

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.