Statistics Profile

Mathew Johnstone

1985

Red Door Fencing

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2114	1708 - 2519	2109	3042
Épée	Direct elimination	2004	1459 - 2548	1906	2598
Foil	Pool	1368	528 - 2207	1368	1368
Saber	Pool	2156	1681 - 2630	1452	2156
Saber	Direct elimination	2111	1428 - 2793	1616	2236

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.