Statistics Profile

Natasha Johnstone

1987

Red Door Fencing

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1733	1258 - 2207	1733	2029
Épée	Direct elimination	1540	620 - 2459	1540	2043
Foil	Pool	2358	1459 - 3256	2358	3165
Foil	Direct elimination	2534	1284 - 3783	2534	2534
Saber	Pool	1278	479 - 2076	1278	1278
Saber	Direct elimination	1931	669 - 3192	1931	1931

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.