Statistics Profile

James Russell

2008

Cape Fear Fencing Association

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2035	1867 - 2202	1365	2070
Épée	Direct elimination	2259	2088 - 2429	1235	2283
Foil	Pool	1606	1329 - 1882	1327	1606
Foil	Direct elimination	1943	1462 - 2423	1943	2136

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.